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According to the market research firm Semiconductor Intelligence, according to data from the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization (WSTS), global semiconductor sales in the first quarter of 2021 reached US$123.1 billion, an increase of 3.6% from the previous quarter and an increase of 17.8% from the same period last year. , But the lack of stock may limit semiconductor growth in 2021.
The following table shows the revenue changes of the top 14 semiconductor companies in the first quarter of 2021, compared to the fourth quarter of 2020, and the revenue growth guidance for the second quarter of 2021 compared to the first quarter (if any). Among the 12 companies that released financial reports in the first quarter of 2021, Intel, Qualcomm, and STMicroelectronics have revenues that have declined compared with the fourth quarter of 2020. All three companies expect their revenue in the second quarter of this year to fall by about 4% compared to the first quarter. Intel and Qualcomm said they are subject to supply constraints. STMicroelectronics attributed this decline to seasonal trends.
The following table shows the revenue changes of the top 14 semiconductor companies in the first quarter of 2021, compared to the fourth quarter of 2020, and the revenue growth guidance for the second quarter of 2021 compared to the first quarter (if any). Among the 12 companies that released financial reports in the first quarter of 2021, Intel, Qualcomm, and STMicroelectronics have revenues that have declined compared with the fourth quarter of 2020. All three companies expect their revenue in the second quarter of this year to fall by about 4% compared to the first quarter. Intel and Qualcomm said they are subject to supply constraints. STMicroelectronics attributed this decline to seasonal trends.
The income of the remaining companies has increased, NXP Semiconductors's revenue increased by 2.4%, and MediaTek's revenue increased by 12.1%. These companies all predict that revenue in the second quarter of 2021 will continue to grow. NXP cited supply constraints as the reason for its cautious forecast. Therefore, of the 9 companies that provided guidance for the second quarter, 4 indicated that their supply was restricted.
How long will the limited supply of the semiconductor industry last?
A recent report by ZDNET asserted that it may take two years to resolve the semiconductor shortage. CNBC quoted an analyst as saying that this shortage may not be resolved until 2023. The CNBC report also cited a Gartner report that said the shortage will continue for six months. TSMC Chairman Liu Deyin recently said in an interview with CBS’s “60 Minutes” program that TSMC can meet customer demand for automotive semiconductors by the end of June, but supply chain issues may cause automotive production. Delayed for a few more months.
At least from 2021 to 2022, the global economy and key terminal equipment markets will drive the growth of semiconductor demand. IDC predicts that smartphone sales will rebound from -6.7% in 2020 to a positive growth of 5.5% in 2021, and slow to 3.7% in 2022. In 2020, the personal computer market has grown by 13%, as work from home and education drive demand. IDC predicts that growth in 2021 will be even stronger, with personal computer sales increasing by 18%. It is expected that by 2022, the PC market will be corrected, down 5%. Ward Intelligence and Morningstar predict that light-duty vehicle shipments will grow strongly by 11% in 2021 after a 15% decline in 2020. By 2022, the growth of light vehicles will slow to 7%, higher than the long-term trend. However, a shortage of automotive semiconductors may limit growth in 2021.
How long will the limited supply of the semiconductor industry last?
A recent report by ZDNET asserted that it may take two years to resolve the semiconductor shortage. CNBC quoted an analyst as saying that this shortage may not be resolved until 2023. The CNBC report also cited a Gartner report that said the shortage will continue for six months. TSMC Chairman Liu Deyin recently said in an interview with CBS’s “60 Minutes” program that TSMC can meet customer demand for automotive semiconductors by the end of June, but supply chain issues may cause automotive production. Delayed for a few more months.
At least from 2021 to 2022, the global economy and key terminal equipment markets will drive the growth of semiconductor demand. IDC predicts that smartphone sales will rebound from -6.7% in 2020 to a positive growth of 5.5% in 2021, and slow to 3.7% in 2022. In 2020, the personal computer market has grown by 13%, as work from home and education drive demand. IDC predicts that growth in 2021 will be even stronger, with personal computer sales increasing by 18%. It is expected that by 2022, the PC market will be corrected, down 5%. Ward Intelligence and Morningstar predict that light-duty vehicle shipments will grow strongly by 11% in 2021 after a 15% decline in 2020. By 2022, the growth of light vehicles will slow to 7%, higher than the long-term trend. However, a shortage of automotive semiconductors may limit growth in 2021.
As the world recovers from the epidemic, it is particularly difficult to predict the semiconductor market in 2021. The rebound in demand for electronic products was offset by a shortage of semiconductors. Shortages will push up the prices of some semiconductors, but others are determined by long-term contracts. It takes about two years to build a new semiconductor factory, but in many cases, existing factories can increase production in a relatively short period of time.
The recent forecast of the semiconductor market in 2021 is divided into two camps. In December 2020, WSTS forecasts an increase of 10.9% in 2021. IDC's May forecast is for an increase of 12.5% in 2021. IDC pointed out that strong growth in the major semiconductor markets will be offset by supply constraints. IC Insights believes that the strong growth in the first quarter of 2021 and the moderate growth in the next three quarters will drive the semiconductor industry to grow by 19% this year.
The recent forecast of the semiconductor market in 2021 is divided into two camps. In December 2020, WSTS forecasts an increase of 10.9% in 2021. IDC's May forecast is for an increase of 12.5% in 2021. IDC pointed out that strong growth in the major semiconductor markets will be offset by supply constraints. IC Insights believes that the strong growth in the first quarter of 2021 and the moderate growth in the next three quarters will drive the semiconductor industry to grow by 19% this year.
Semiconductor Intelligence’s latest forecast is similar to IC Insights, which is expected to grow by 20% in 2021. Semiconductor Intelligence believes that strong demand will drive rapid growth, although shortages may limit this trend. If there are no supply restrictions, the potential growth rate could be around 25%. Semiconductor Intelligence predicts that by 2022, the growth of the semiconductor industry will slow to 12%, which is still higher than the long-term trend growth of 6% to 7%.